Detailed critique of week 2 day 1 of future learn fracking course

Predictions and Reflexivity.  

Concerning week 2 day 1 future learn course

SHALE GAS AND FRACKING 

THE UNIVERSITY OF NOTTINGHAM

Analysis of this presentation.

I hope there will be some counter narrative datasets to balance this presentation.

Forecasts of future human behaviour are predictions. Future human behaviour is not carved in stone. I am reminded of the Bank of England predictive fan charts before the crash of 2008. Predicting human behaviour does not force people to do something. Educating people can change their future behaviour eg. Boiling water before use and basic food hygiene could save millions of lives by affecting future behaviour.

if current trend X continues then ...
check this story about the predictions on horse manure in 1900 on the introduction of horses into London.

http://fee.org/files/docLib/547_32.pdf

http://fee.org/files/docLib/547_32.pdf

I would be extremely wary of accepting predictive datasets from bp as undisputed fact.

That would be a bit like looking to igas for financial predictions and igas predicting everyone will buy their shares.

http://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/quote/IGAS

http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/graph-of-the-day-collapse-of-us-shale-oil-industry-76188

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/01/13/how-wall-street-profited-from-the-oil-gas-drilling-boom-thats-turning-into-a-disaster/

http://www.nofrackingway.us/2015/01/12/the-shale-crash-of-2015/

If we look at this presentation it says for Europe overall energy usage will fall. That is either a cause for celebration or a cause for seriously questioning the assumptions in this data set.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reflexivity_(social_theory)

Note on pie chart colouring:

Oil should be dark browny grey

Coal should be black

Renewables should be green

Hydro should be blue and probably in with renewables.

This is basic psychology of making the wished to be perceived "nice" thing blue.

Energy usage by sector.

Surely power is a superset of the others?

Feeding into industry, transport. Power feeds trains, trams, electric cars/ bikes.

Transport, power, industry, other?! ( what is other). Not sure why the percentages would change on this chart over time.

Predictions on global energy consumption in transport by bp completely underplays renewables. This is an attempt at self fulfilling prophecy. It's a fallacy. It's like me saying you will read everything I write tomorrow. It's a kind of mass hypnosis. Bp says in the future we will need more oil. Reflexive prediction. If we accept it it becomes true.

If we undertake a massive divestment away from oil and gas. A paradigm shift then I imagine in our future we will become less reliant on oil. Particularly in the west.

There is something similar happening in world commodity markets of copper. Because of financial manipulation over excessively high copper prices. Manufactures have developed alternatives such as graphene... This has caused a shift in demand for copper and panic selling by those hoarding copper in warehouses.

re Global energy consumption in the industrial sector 1990 to 2035.

This slide is just wrong. Geothermal and hydro are absent.

See Iceland geothermal in aluminium production.

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/mar/26/business/la-fi-iceland-economy-20110326.

Google industrial use of hydroelectric power.
http://www.iawq.org.uk/Industrial-Commercial-Water.html

Here is another prediction Solar will be part of industrial energy use in the future